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WealthPoint Town Hall Webinar Summary

Investing Lifestyle Retirement
WealthPoint最近与Dimensional Fund Advisors的阿波罗•卢佩斯库(Apollo Lupescu)举办了一场市政厅网络研讨会,讨论当前市场状况以及投资者下一步应该做什么. Apollo Lupescu is a Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors, 2004年,他在加州大学(University of California)获得经济学和金融学博士学位后开始在那里工作, Santa Barbara. He is currently Dimensional’s “secretary of explaining stuff.” In this role, 他经常在全国和世界各地的金融顾问专业会议和个人投资者活动上露面.

Here are the topics we discussed:

 

How are people feeling about the markets today?

阿波罗向我们保证,每天2% -4%的波动是不常见的,它们产生的负面情绪是正常的. 他解释说,由于围绕这场危机的不确定性和未知因素如此之多,许多投资者都是在感情上而不是理性上行事. This is where having an advisor in your corner is crucial. 你的顾问可以帮助你理清投资中的情绪,用逻辑来做决定.

 

Can history teach us anything about this current situation?

Similar to comments in Brent’s newsletter, 阿波罗同意每个触发事件看起来都像是从未发生过. He believes that our current events are merely different economically, although still not unprecedented. In an economic contraction one of the main drivers of the economy, either businesses, consumers, or the government, suffers some sort of difficulty and reduces spending. In this case, much of the economy has slowed down or shuttered completely. This creates a decrease in demand but also a supply shortage. Two examples from history of this situation were discussed.

Spanish Influenza of 1918: With millions of Americans suffering from the flu, the economy had to shut down to deal with the pandemic. Despite the limitations of economic data from that time period, we know this had a profound impact on the economy. We also know that the time period that followed, the roaring twenties, were one of the most economically robust periods in history. 阿波罗还指出,在我们考虑重新开放经济时,这段时间吸取的教训至关重要. During the flu pandemic, 每个城市都有自己的重新开放时间表,不受更广泛的州或联邦监管. 《云顶集团》杂志指出,“过早”重新开放的城市,由于对新冠肺炎的恐惧导致消费者信心和需求下降,仍在遭受经济损失.

二战:11%的劳动力投入战争,消费支出减少, creative thinking had to step in to solve our economic troubles. Women began working outside the home and major U.S. companies retooled their factories to contribute to the war effort. This also had an interesting effect on the stock market. 战争开始前5年,4年的回报率为负,平均为-7.5%. However, during the war the market returned upwards of 22%/year. Therefore, 尽管在战争开始时,投资者可能会有负面的前景, you would have doubled your investment by the end. The American economy and companies are resilient. 他们总能找到创造利润的方法,无论是福特野马(Ford mustang)还是呼吸机.

 

Is the market functioning as it should?

Yes, and the movement we’ve seen lately is proof. 这场危机开始时,市场出现了较大的下跌,原因是人们普遍意识到,许多公司将无法达到他们在年初设定的收入预期. Therefore, if a company is going to make less money, a share of its stock should trade at a lower value. 当这种情况大规模地发生在许多全球企业身上时,市场可能会出现自由落体.

这些我们最近看到的每日或每周的大波动是围绕当前经济形势的众多“未知因素”的结果. 随着投资技术的发展,很多买卖都是由计算机模型驱动的. Without enough known or predictable variables, 这些模型将产生一系列广泛的市场预期,从而触发投资者的行动. 重要的是要记住,市场的基本功能是连接买方和卖方.  So, 每一个卖出头寸并认为“未来一定会有另一次崩盘”的人,都会有另一个人的想法正好相反.

 

So, what should rational investors do during this time?

Apollo cautioned first against two common urges. 那些想要卖出股票的人在这样做的时候会产生两个额外的问题. 首先,你必须能够准确判断什么时候是最好的退出时间,以避免重大损失,然后 also be able to get back into the market right before the recovery. This is nearly impossible. Additionally, 卖出股票并不会让你对市场的起伏感到轻松. 取而代之的是试图预测何时买进的压力和对错失收益的担忧.

Those who wait for things to settle down will have already missed out. Apollo brought up the returns of 2009. During the depth of economic recession, the market returned 25% while the bulk of the economy was still struggling. 这是一个很好的提醒,股市不是“经济”,也不是步调一致的. Often, stock market recoveries even precede economic recoveries.

It can be hard to know how and when to take action, 这就是为什么和理财顾问一起工作,制定一个理财计划是非常有益的. With the help of their advisor, 投资者可以通过确保自己的股票与债券组合适合自己的情况,建立一个考虑好年景和坏年景的可靠投资计划.S. international, small, and large companies.

 

 

Thanks to all those who attended. For those of you who were not able, 我们计划在未来举办更多这样的活动,并对进一步的主题提出建议.

About the Author: Brie Black

Brie grew up in San Antonio, Texas and attended Texas A&她在M大学获得商业学士学位,辅修财务规划和沟通. 在大学期间,她在一位经验丰富的金融顾问手下工作,这位顾问帮助她认识到,她热衷于帮助他人理解和发展他们的金融生活.